It’s summer, so yet again, I dust off my predictor hat and make a guess for what the big films are going to do, business-wise. Last year, I made a long list of bold predictions here. Some of them are fairly close to reality (Knocked Up’s opening, for instance), some are laughably off course (Transformers, anyone?) I didn’t make such a post in 2006, but I did predict that Hulk never would have a sequel here, which I suppose is both true and false at the same time. This year, I’m hoping I’ll guess a bit better, but I don’t hold out hope.
Regardless, for your enjoyment and mine, my movie previews. I’m going to break it up into months. It’s a bit much to try and write the whole summer in one go.
Weekend of May 2
Iron Man
I’m conflicted about Marvel’s latest cinematic foray. Sure, it looks good. Robert Downey Jr. seems to have Tony Stark down perfectly. The visuals look awesome. And they seem like they’ve got the story down.
But, really, can the actual film be better than this trailer? Just look at it, you’ve got the story, the humor, the character… And then at the end, the pitch-perfect use of Black Sabbath. It’s just five chords, but it totally sells the film, and encapsulates a little 2 minute masterpiece of advertising.
That basically sells the film, though. It’s also got one of the prime weekends of the year and the still strong Marvel branding.
Still, I’ve got some reservations. The follow-up ads haven’t been nearly as strong. And Iron Man isn’t nearly the top-tier character that Spider-Man and the X-Men are. Hell, he’s not even as recognizable as the Hulk. Plus, while the trailers look good, it makes the film look really dense, like they’re trying to cram too much story into it. We don’t want another Spider-Man 3, after all.
Plus, the Iron Man in the film is all but a different entity than the Iron Man in the comics, where Tony Stark has become a neo-conservative fascist overlord. And in a non-ironic way: he’s being pitched as the top tier hero in Marvel’s line-up.
Granted, that will really only be a problem if someone wants to read the books after the film. For the opening, at least, it doesn’t make a difference.
Opening: $80m. Final: $220m.
Made of Honor
A fairly good looking romantic comedy that’s being served up as counter-programming for anyone seeking a little less testosterone. It looks funny, but isn’t likely to make any headlines.
Opening: $15m. Final: $50m.
Weekend of May 9
Speed Racer
This might be the most visually astonishing film of the summer. It’s like a high dynamic range photograph come to life in full Vegas splendor. And then there’s the action. A number of my friends mentioned how Mario Kart-like it was from the time they saw the first trailer.
If nothing else, the Wachowski Brothers are know for their spectacle. Despite the wooden delivery of Keanu Reeves, The Matrix was a breakout blockbuster, and still the biggest film ever that opened in April (aka, Hollywood’s litter box). And even if the sequels disappointed from just about every other standpoint, they mostly looked really good.
Speed Racer looks even better. It’s also got a bit of retro-nostalgia, although that might be about 5-10 years too late. Even so, it’s a recognized brand, possibly with in even greater public knowledge than Iron Man.
On the downside, it’s a bit weird, when you think about it. The cartoon is 40 years old. It’s also the first time an anime has been chosen for the big screen treatment in the US (despite fits and starts on a number of other projects over the past 15-20 years). There are a lot of questions as to whether there’s any crossover appeal in store.
Plus, while it looks visually spectacular, some of the lines uttered in the trailer make Keanu look like Alec Baldwin. Racer X looks especially bad, so we might be in store for another effects driven action-fest with laughably bad acting.
Even so, while it’s not as high profile as the other May releases, it should do fairly well.
Opening: $50m, Final: $140m.
What Happens in Vegas
The big question here is… does Ashton Kutcher have a fanbase? Since he’s taken the turn away from being a TV doofus to focus on movies, he’s done fairly well for himself. The Butterfly Effect, Guess Who, Open Season, and The Guardian all opened between $15m and $25m and had final tallies between $50m and $90m. Of course, he hasn’t headlined a film since the last two were released in September of ‘06, over 18 months ago.
Cameron Diaz has had a fairly successful movie career, but that’s less due to her pull and more that she’s been involved in some fairly high-profile releases.
On the whole it doesn’t look bad, but it doesn’t look great, either. Plus, two rom-coms in successive weeks as counterprogramming seems a bit excessive.
Opening: $12, Final: $45.
Weekend of May 16
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
2005 was a weird year at the box office. It made news in mid-summer when someone noted how long it had been down compared to 2004. Even with the stellar performance of Revenge of the Sith, it wasn’t until the release of Fantastic Four that there was a year to year increase on the weekend for the summer.
While overall the year was a downer, there were some bright spots: Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Batman Begins, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, and Wedding Crashers all provided some bright lift in June and July.
During the Holidays, while King Kong floundered a bit, especially to expectations, there were two huge films: Harry Potter 4 was the biggest since the Sorcerers Stone, and Narnia broke out in a huge way in December.
Despite some very uneven special effects, it managed to force its nearly to the $300m mark by remaining mostly fun and enjoyable throughout. It was certainly more entertaining than reading the book.
Prince Caspian looks like they’ve dispensed with the problems and amped up the action to really make it feel like a fantasy epic on par with Lord of the Rings. It should bring in the people just wanting a huge experience with ease. And it’s got the other big factor in its favor: Christianity.
As Passion of the Christ showed, the Christian market can be huge. If given the right incentive, it will mobilize to drive a film to astonishing heights. The Narnia films have that in spades. Combining that with the enjoyable experience of the first probably means it’s going to be even bigger.
Opening: $100, Final: $310.
Weekend of May 23
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
While I expect Narnia to be the biggest film of the summer, this is by far the most anticipated. The first three Indy films stand as one of the great adventure trilogies and, at least in quality, stand up very well to the original Star Wars films.
While the road it’s taken getting to the screen, 19 years since The Last Crusade, has been long and fitful, it almost seems as if George Lucas’ extremely picky nature regarding the film has paid off. The trailer looks great, combining the self-depricating heroism with the pulp adventure perfectly.
And, really, who the hell can resist that musical theme?
The downside is the weekend. While it’s always huge, Memorial Day still strikes me as a poor weekend to release a film given the extreme drop that any film, regardless of quality, experiences afterwards.
However, expect it to open huge.
Opening: $90m (three day, $150m five day), Final: $280m.
Postal
Uwe Boll has made a career of constructing adaptations of video games that are terrible. He’s well denigrated by movie aficionados and gamers alike. It’d be sad, except I’m pretty sure he’s just doing it as a tax break for German companies. I honestly doubt any of his films have lost any money.
He’s taking a bit of a turn here. Instead of the typical so-bad-it’s-no-longer-even-funny fare he’s churned out, he seems to have gone with hey-let’s-make-it-bad-and-funny.
I have to acknowledge that it does look bad. But it also looks funny. It could be worth a watch once it’s been sitting on the DVD shelves for a few months and you can find it for a couple bucks.
Not that it matters. Boll’s name alone ruins the box office potential. The fact it’s going up against Indy is suicide.
Opening: $2m, Final $5m.
Weekend of May 30
Sex and the City
It’s taking the spot of last year’s phenomenal performer Knocked Up, and it’s got a strong brand, but I don’t predict a rosy future for Sarah Jessica Parker and friends. For one, there’s no Judd Apatow behind the scenes, which would help the crossover appeal for a rom-com tremendously.
The TV series is really successful, but that’s never meant a big response in the theaters. Still, there’s two blank weekends for this market beforehand, and it’s possible that neither Made of Honor nor What Happens in Vegas will really drag in the audiences. Between that and possible event overload, crowds may really want to go for something different after Memorial Day.
Opening: $20m, Final: $70m.
The Strangers
Bleh. Torture Porn. Liv Tyler and Scott Speedman are not draws, either.
Opening: $8m, Final: $20m.
Overall
It’s going to be a disappointing May. Not really, but last year was so huge that even with all the threequels not performing up to hype or expectation, it drove the box office to spectacular heights. The films this May are strong, but none are on the level with last year, business-wise.
Tags: box office predictions
I wonder if you might be underestimating SatC’s opening a little. I’ve had 3 different women approach me about planning girls movie nights for my women’s social club for opening weekend — it’s a serious event movie for a certain segment of women.
Out of curiousity, do you have a summary of how last year’s movies actually did against your predictions?
It’s possible. However, in comparison to other big RomComs, it doesn’t really have anyone who’d drag in the men. While it could skew higher than expected, I’m still not sure it can reach super heights.
I could be wrong, though. Titanic showed that there’s significant market power in catering to females.
I haven’t done a comparison, yet. But that’s probably a good idea.
I just heard that SatC opened at $65 million or so, but that might be worldwide numbers, I’m not sure.
It certainly wasn’t drawing in any men — the showing I saw (sold out 2 days in advance) had maybe 5 men in a 400 seat theater. It was almost all thirtysomething women, dressed up for martini and movie nights.
The estimate was about 56 million, of which a huge portion came on Friday (almost 27 million there). It’s entirely possible there’s another 10 million or so overseas.
And it’s looking like about 85% of the audience was women.
I’ll have a monthly estimate recap soon.